Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya
Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya
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DOI：
10.1177/0022002708330881
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发表时间：
2009-06-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Lyall, Jason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lyall, Jason
一个国家不分青红皂白地使用暴力是否会煽动叛乱袭击？迄今为止，大多数现有的理论和经验研究都得出结论认为，这种暴力行为具有很大的反作用，因为它造成新的不满，同时迫使受害者在反叛武装中寻求安全，如果不是安全的话。这一命题是测试使用俄罗斯在车臣（2000年至2005年）的炮火，以估计不分青红皂白的暴力行为的影响，随后的模式，叛乱分子的攻击，在匹配对类似的炮击和nonshelled村庄。这些发现是违反直觉的。与控制村庄相比，炮击村庄的治疗后平均叛乱袭击减少了24%。此外，通常提到的叛乱分子报复的“触发因素”，包括不分青红皂白的暴力的致命性和破坏性，要么与叛乱分子的袭击呈负相关，要么在统计上微不足道。
Does a state's use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? To date, most existing theories and empirical studies have concluded that such violence is highly counterproductive because it creates new grievances while forcing victims to seek security, if not safety, in rebel arms. This proposition is tested using Russian artillery fire in Chechnya (2000 to 2005) to estimate indiscriminate violence's effect on subsequent patterns of insurgent attacks across matched pairs of similar shelled and nonshelled villages. The findings are counterintuitive. Shelled villages experience a 24 percent reduction in posttreatment mean insurgent attacks relative to control villages. In addition, commonly cited "triggers" for insurgent retaliation, including the lethality and destructiveness of indiscriminate violence, are either negatively correlated with insurgent attacks or statistically insignificant.