Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision-making for water management under uncertainty
Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision-making for water management under uncertainty
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02592.x
复制
发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Alcock, Ruth E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beven, Keith J.;Alcock, Ruth E.
1.有越来越多的需求，预测生态水文响应集水区未来的变化，但这样的预测将不可避免的不确定性，因为自然变异性和不同来源的知识（认识）的不确定性。2.因此，政策制定和决策应在模型预测和潜在后果中反映这些固有的不确定性。3.这是一个英国的焦点。自然环境研究理事会知识交流项目，称为流域变化网络。其目的是将学术界和从业人员聚集在一起，确定将风险和不确定性纳入变革影响评估的良好做法准则。4.在这里，我们评估的背景下，有汇水模型无处不在的发展这样的准则。
1. There are increasing demands to predict ecohydrological responses to future changes in catchments but such predictions will be inevitably uncertain because of natural variability and different sources of knowledge (epistemic) uncertainty. 2. Policy setting and decision-making should therefore reflect these inherent uncertainties in both model predictions and potential consequences. 3. This is the focus of a U.K. Natural Environment Research Council knowledge exchange project called the Catchment Change Network (CCN). The aim is to bring academics and practitioners together to define Guidelines for Good Practice in incorporating risk and uncertainty into assessments of the impacts of change. 4. Here, we assess the development of such Guidelines in the context of having catchment models of everywhere.