The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States
The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00426
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Lee, Bruce Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bartsch, Sarah M.;Ferguson, Marie C.;Lee, Bruce Y.
随着2019年冠状病毒病（Covid-19）的大流行，主要关注点之一是对美国医疗保健系统施加的直接医疗成本和资源使用负担。我们开发了一个蒙特卡洛模拟模型，该模型代表了美国人口，以及每个被感染的人可能发生的事情。我们估计了每个症状感染的资源使用和直接医疗费用，以及在国家一级，具有各种“攻击率”（感染率），以了解减轻疾病负担的潜在经济利益。仅在感染过程中，单个有症状的Covid-19病例可能会产生中位直接医疗费用3,045美元。如果80％的美国人口被感染，结果可能是4460万住院，1,070万重症监护室（ICU）入院，650万患者需要呼吸机，2.495亿次医院床位和6540亿美元在大流行过程中，直接医疗费用。如果20％的美国人口被感染，则可能有1,120万个住院，270万个ICU入院，160万患者需要呼吸机，6230万个医院病床和1634亿美元的直接医疗费用。大流行。
With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.