CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Nino and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century
CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Nino and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century
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CMIP5对二十一世纪两类厄尔尼诺及其相关热带降水的预测
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0413.1
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Weiqiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu, Kang;Tam, Chi-Yung;Wang, Weiqiang
摘要：利用耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP5) 第 5 阶段 31 个耦合模型的历史运行和代表性浓度路径 8.5 (RCP8.5) 模拟，研究了 21 世纪东太平洋 (EP) 和中太平洋 (CP) 厄尔尼诺类型的未来预测及其相关的热带环流和降水变率。从最能捕捉两种厄尔尼诺特征的CMIP5模型推断，未来气候中EP型厄尔尼诺海表温度（SST）的变化将变得更弱，而CP型厄尔尼诺海表温度没有发现剧烈的变化。模型对于未来从中部型厄尔尼诺到东部型厄尔尼诺的相对频率变化也没有达成共识。然而，与这两种厄尔尼诺现象相关的热带翻转环流和降水都发生了剧烈变化。在气候变暖的情况下，东部型厄尔尼诺期间的降水异常幅度预计将增加，导致干（湿）信号显着增强。
AbstractFuture projections of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) types of El Nino in the twenty-first century, as well as their associated tropical circulation and precipitation variability, are investigated using historical runs and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations from 31 coupled models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As inferred from CMIP5 models that best capture both El Nino flavors, EP El Nino sea surface temperature (SST) variability will become weaker in the future climate, while no robust change of CP El Nino SST is found. Models also reach no consensus on the future change of relative frequency from CP to EP El Nino. However, there are robust changes in the tropical overturning circulation and precipitation associated with both types of El Nino. Under a warmer climate, magnitudes of precipitation anomalies during EP El Nino are projected to increase, presenting significant enhancement of the dry (wet) signal over the we...