Predictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors: A case study of Ghana and Burundi
Predictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors: A case study of Ghana and Burundi
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DOI：
10.1016/j.sste.2012.08.001
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Oyana, Tonny J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barro, Alassane S.;Oyana, Tonny J.
虽然最近所作的努力已在很大程度上控制了许多非洲国家的盘尾丝虫病，但已发表的报告表明，这种疾病又有复发的趋势。要了解这个问题，生物物理因素，有利于建立人类盘尾丝虫病在加纳和布隆迪确定为威胁复发的邻国的位置，进行了分析。有关这两个国家人类盘尾丝虫病流行率的数据来自已发表的资料。这项研究的结果表明，在河流附近的地理位置，盘尾丝虫病的流行率存在梯度。预测模型表明，降雨量，湿度和海拔在布隆迪数据中具有统计学意义，而在加纳，只有海拔的影响非常显著（p < 0.0001）。2010年，加纳和布隆迪的风险人口估计分别为4，817，280人（占总人口的19.75%）和522，773人（占总人口的6.23%）。研究结果有助于有效设计预防控制措施。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Although recent efforts taken have substantially contained human onchocerciasis in many African countries, published reports indicate a recrudescence of the disease. To understand this problem, biophysical factors that favor the establishment of human onchocerciasis in Ghana and Burundi-countries identified as threat locations of recrudescence for neighboring countries-were analyzed. Data pertaining to the prevalence of human onchocerciasis in both countries was obtained from published sources. Findings in this study suggest that there was a gradient in prevalence of onchocerciasis in geographic locations near the water streams. The predictive models suggest that rainfall, humidity, and elevation were statistically significant for Burundi data while in Ghana, only the effect of elevation was highly significant (p < 0.0001). In 2010, the estimated at-risk population was 4,817,280 people (19.75% of the total population) and 522,773 people (6.23% of the total population) in Ghana and Burundi, respectively. Findings can help in the effective design of preventive control measures. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.