Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories
Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories
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未来变暖和气候敏感性轨迹的概率预测
DOI：
10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
P. Goodwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Goodwin
在给定强迫情景下，对未来全球平均地表变暖的预测仍然不确定，这主要是由于气候敏感性的不确定性。气候模型比对项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 的地球系统模型集合代表了预测未来全球变暖的主要工具。然而，CMIP6 集合内气候敏感性的分布并不代表最近的独立概率估计，并且该集合在模拟的历史地表变暖中包含与观测数据集不一致的显着变化。在这里，贝叶斯方法用于推断共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景中未来地表变暖和气候敏感性的联合概率预测。这些预测使用了经过过滤和加权的高效气候模型集合，以概括历史变暖和海洋热含量异常中的观测不确定性。气候敏感性的概率预测得出的最佳估计值为 2.9 (cid:2) C，第 5-95 个百分位范围为 1.5-4.6 (cid:2) C，与之前使用多条证据进行的估计一致。对于所有考虑的 SSP：119、126、245、370 和 585，2030-40 年期间地表变暖的联合预测有 50% 或更大的可能性超过工业化前 1.5 (cid:2) C。对于 SSP，2050-60 年期间平均变暖有 > 50% 的可能性超过 2 (cid:2) C 245、370 和 585。这些结果意味着，即使采取立即大幅缓解措施，全球变暖也不再可能保持在 1.5 (cid:2) C 以下，并强调采取紧急行动以避免超过 C 的重要性
Projections of future global mean surface warming for a given forcing scenario remain uncertain, largely due to uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The ensemble of Earth system models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) represents the dominant tools for projecting future global warming. However, the distribution of climate sensitivi-ties within the CMIP6 ensemble is not representative of recent independent probabilistic estimates, and the ensemble contains significant variation in simulated historic surface warming outside agreement with observational datasets. Here, a Bayesian approach is used to infer joint probabilistic projections of future surface warming and climate sensitivity for shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The projections use an efficient climate model ensemble filtered and weighted to encapsulate observational uncertainty in historic warming and ocean heat content anomalies. The probabilistic projection of climate sensitivity produces a best estimate of 2.9 (cid:2) C, and 5th–95th percentile range of 1.5–4.6 (cid:2) C, in line with previous estimates using multiple lines of evidence. The joint projection of surface warming over the period 2030–40 has a 50% or greater probability of exceeding 1.5 (cid:2) C above preindustrial for all SSPs considered: 119, 126, 245, 370 and 585. Average warming by the period 2050–60 has a > 50% chance of exceeding 2 (cid:2) C for SSPs 245, 370 and 585. These results imply that global warming is no longer likely to remain under 1.5 (cid:2) C, even with drastic and immediate mitigation, and highlight the im-portance of urgent action to avoid exceeding C
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Andrews, Timothy;Forster, Piers M.
通讯作者：
Forster, Piers M.