The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation
The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x
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发表时间：
2016-11
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Shuai‐Lei Yao;G. Huang;R. Wu;X. Qu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shuai‐Lei Yao;G. Huang;R. Wu;X. Qu
全球陆地和海洋表面温度（GST）的年平均异常变化的特征是全球变暖的速度在世纪中期和21世纪世纪初放缓。在这里，它表明，在全球变暖的速度通常发生中断时，内部产生的冷却与冷却相关联的多年代际变率克服了长期变暖的人为强迫。我们提供了令人信服的证据，证明全球变暖中断是长期变暖趋势之间相互作用的自然产物，长期变暖趋势在很大程度上是由于人为温室气体浓度的增加，特别是CO2浓度，和由准60年振荡变率的冷相产生的内部冷却，该变率与大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）密切相关太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）我们进一步阐明，AMO可以被认为是一个有用的指标和PDO可以牵连作为全球年平均地表温度的变化在几十年的时间尺度上的预兆。我们的研究结果表明，最近观察到的全球变暖率的中断将很可能延长几年，由于冷却阶段的准60年振荡变化叠加在长期变暖趋势。
The globally-averaged annual combined land and ocean surface temperature (GST) anomaly change features a slowdown in the rate of global warming in the mid-twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century. Here, it is shown that the hiatus in the rate of global warming typically occurs when the internally generated cooling associated with the cool phase of the multi-decadal variability overcomes the secular warming from human-induced forcing. We provide compelling evidence that the global warming hiatus is a natural product of the interplays between a secular warming tendency due in a large part to the buildup of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, in particular CO2concentration, and internally generated cooling by a cool phase of a quasi-60-year oscillatory variability that is closely associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We further illuminate that the AMO can be considered as a useful indicator and the PDO can be implicated as a harbinger of variations in global annual average surface temperature on multi-decadal timescales. Our results suggest that the recent observed hiatus in the rate of global warming will very likely extend for several more years due to the cooling phase of the quasi-60-year oscillatory variability superimposed on the secular warming trend.