Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models
Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-018-0059-y
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Sun, Lantao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Screen, James A.;Deser, Clara;Sun, Lantao
北极海冰的减少是人为气候变化的一个组成部分。海冰损失已经对北极社区和生态系统产生了重大影响。它作为北极以外气候变化原因的作用也引起了科学界的极大兴趣。越来越多的证据表明，北极海冰的减少会影响整个北方的天气和气候。北极海冰丧失的遥远影响只能通过模拟海洋、海冰、陆地和大气之间相互作用的模型来适当地表示。综合六个这样的实验与不同的模式显示一致的半球范围内的大气变暖，最强的中高纬度对流层低;冬季阿留申低压的加强，在大多数情况下，西伯利亚高压;冰岛低压的减弱;和减少强度和南移的中纬度西风在冬季。大气环流的反应似乎是敏感的海冰损失的规模和地理格局，在某些情况下，对背景气候状态。然而，目前还不清楚当前的气候模型对海冰变化的反应是否太弱。我们提倡协调实验，使用不同的模型和观测限制，以量化气候对北极海冰损失的反应。
The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.