The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds
The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds
复制标题
统计性和确定性水文滑坡触发阈值的确定
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Terlien
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Terlien
摘要水文滑坡触发阈值将引发滑坡的日降雨量和前期降雨量或降雨强度和持续时间的组合与未能引发滑坡的组合分开。 它们是发展滑坡预警系统所必需的。当有大量关于降雨和滑坡发生的数据时，就以统计方式确定水文触发阈值。当滑坡发生的数据有限时，必须使用确定性模型。对于降雨直接触发的浅层滑坡，可以通过一维水文模型和无限坡模型相结合的方法来确定触发阈值。在位于地形凹陷处的相对较深的滑坡中，由土壤-基岩接触处的水缓慢积聚引发，滑坡发生与降雨之间的简单相关性不再成立。因此，实时故障概率必须使用水文集水模型结合无限边坡模型来确定。
Abstract Hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds separate combinations of daily and antecedent rainfall or of rainfall intensity and duration that triggered landslides from those that failed to trigger landslides. They are required for the development of landslide early warning systems. When a large data set on rainfall and landslide occurrence is available, hydrological triggering thresholds are determined in a statistical way. When the data on landslide occurrence is limited, deterministic models have to be used. For shallow landslides directly triggered by percolating rainfall, triggering thresholds can be established by means of one-dimensional hydrological models linked to the infinite slope model. In the case of relatively deep landslides located in topographic hollows and triggered by a slow accumulation of water at the soil-bedrock contact, simple correlations between landslide occurrence and rainfall can no longer be established. Therefore real-time failure probabilities have to be determined using hydrological catchment models in combination with the infinite slope model.