Forecasting Elections
Forecasting Elections
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预测选举
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Business School
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Leighton Vaughan;Williams Nottingham;Business School
在这篇文章中，我们评估了大量美国选举的民意调查、预测市场、专家意见和统计模型，以确定哪一个在预测结果方面表现得更好。与现有文献一致，我们纠正了民意调查的偏见。我们考虑了选举前不同时间段的准确性、偏差和精确度，我们得出的结论是，预测市场似乎提供了最准确的预测，并且在对民意调查的偏差方面类似。我们fi发现，我们的统计模型难以提供有竞争力的预测，而专家的意见似乎是有价值的。最后，我们注意到预测范围很重要；虽然预测市场预测往往会随着选举的临近而改善，但民意调查的表现似乎更差，而专家意见在整个过程中表现一致。因此，我们为越来越多的比较民调和预测市场的选举预测的文献做出了贡献。
In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion, and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. In line with existing literature, we bias-correct opinion polls. We consider accuracy, bias and precision over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to provide the most precise forecasts and are similar in terms of bias to opinion polls. We find that our statistical model struggles to provide competitive forecasts whilst expert opinion appears to be of value. Finally we note that the forecast horizon matters; while prediction market forecasts tend to improve the nearer an election is, opinion polls appear to perform worse, while expert opinion performs consistently throughout. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets.