Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.
Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep14877
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发表时间：
2015-10-06
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Drijfhout S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Drijfhout S
大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的崩溃通过快速反馈导致全球变冷，快速反馈选择性地放大了北方半球（NH）的响应。这种变冷如何与全球变暖竞争一直是一个猜测的话题，但从未使用气候模型来解决。在这里，它表明，由于AMOC崩溃的全球冷却消除了全球变暖15-20年的时间。此后，全球平均温度趋势被逆转，变得类似于没有AMOC崩溃的模拟。由此产生的地表变暖间断持续40-50年。全球变暖和AMOC引起的NH冷却由类似的反馈控制，引起类似符号的全球净辐射不平衡，尽管前者与地表变暖有关，后者与冷却有关。它们在向外发出的长波和吸收的短波辐射中的足迹非常明显，使归属成为可能。
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.