Study of the Risks of Termination of Contracts Concluded as a Result of Public Procurement
Study of the Risks of Termination of Contracts Concluded as a Result of Public Procurement
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公共采购合同终止风险研究
DOI：
10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-3-74-85
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Gonchar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Sozaeva;K. Gonchar
根据世界银行和经济发展与合作组织的数据，国家和市政采购在各国经济的运作中发挥着重要作用，在世界GDP结构中，国家和市政采购占支出的15%，在一些国家占23%至45%。新型冠状病毒大流行的蔓延导致需要加强国家的作用，参与调节国民经济，并增加社会领域的支出。在这方面，国家和市政采购制度成为一个日益受到关注的领域，并对其有效性进行了全面评估。在世界市场出现高度不确定性（制造厂关闭、封锁和边境关闭）的情况下，大大限制了货物、工程和服务的全球周转，国家和市政合同的执行风险大大增加。在这方面，研究的目的是分析俄罗斯国家和市政采购系统中合同终止的原因，并提出建议，尽量减少买方和合同执行人的终止风险。本研究采用了统计分析、回顾分析、比较分析、预测要素等方法，计算结果均采用Python语言开发的系统进行。数据被聚合到PostgreSQL 12关系数据库中。数据分析本身、维度和指标的选择以及它们的可视化都在Microsoft Power BI BI系统中实现。研究结果得出了以下结论：国家和市政在公共采购基础上签订的合同终止的可能性并不直接取决于投标中的节省、投标中的竞争、参与公司（小企业）的规模以及采购所处的行业等因素。与研究终止政府合同的非正式理由有关的问题仍有争议。
State and municipal purchases play an important role in the functioning of the economy of various countries, and, according to the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation, they account for up to 15% of expenditures in the structure of world GDP, and in some countries from 23 to 45%. The spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic has led to the need to strengthen the role of the state, its participation in regulating the national economy, and increasing spending on the social sphere. In this regard, the system of state and municipal procurement becomes an area of increased attention, and its effectiveness is comprehensively assessed. In the context of the high degree of uncertainty that has developed in world markets (closure of manufacturing plants, lockdowns and border closures), which has significantly limited the global turnover of goods, works and services, the risks of execution of state and municipal contracts are increasing significantly. In this regard, the purpose of the study is to analyze the reasons for termination of contacts in the system of Russian state and municipal procurement and substantiate proposals for minimizing the risks of termination for buyers and contract executors. The study used the methods of statistical, retrospective analysis, comparative analysis, forecasting elements, calculations were carried out using a system developed in the Python language. The data is aggregated into a PostgreSQL 12 relational database. The data analysis itself, the selection of dimensions and metrics, as well as their visualization are implemented in the Microsoft Power BI BI-system. As a result of the study, the following conclusions were obtained: the probability of termination of state and municipal contracts concluded on the basis of public procurement does not directly depend on such factors as savings in tenders, competition in tenders, the size of the participating company (small business), as well as the industry, under which the purchase is made. Issues related to the study of non-formalizable reasons for the termination of government contracts remain debatable.