Rural Nevada and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Beliefs, and Risk Perception
Rural Nevada and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Beliefs, and Risk Perception
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01836.x
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发表时间：
2012-06
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Ahmad S. Safi;W. Smith;Zhnongwei Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ahmad S. Safi;W. Smith;Zhnongwei Liu
在这篇文章中，我们介绍了一项研究的结果，该研究调查了气候变化脆弱性作为物理脆弱性、敏感性和适应能力对气候变化风险感知的影响。在2008/2009年，我们对内华达州的牧场主和农民进行了调查，以评估他们与气候变化相关的信念、风险认知、政治取向和社会经济特征。牧场主和农民对气候变化的敏感度是通过估计他们的家庭收入占总收入的比例来衡量的，这些收入来自高度稀缺的水依赖型农业。适应能力是社会状况指数和贫穷指数的组合。利用水的可获得性和使用以及人口分布地理信息系统数据库；我们按邮政编码评估内华达州的水资源脆弱性，以此作为气候变化物理脆弱性的指标。我们进行了相关性测试和多元回归分析，以检验脆弱性及其三个不同组成部分对风险感知的影响。我们发现脆弱性并不是风险认知的重要决定因素。身体上的脆弱性本身也不会影响风险认知。敏感度和适应能力都会增加风险感知。虽然年龄不是风险的重要决定因素，但性别在形成风险认知方面起着重要作用。然而，政治取向等一般信念和气候变化特有的信念，如相信气候变化的人为原因，以及将当地观察到的影响(在这种情况下是干旱)与气候变化联系起来，是风险认知的最显著决定因素。
In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change‐related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers’ and farmers’ sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water‐dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change‐specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception.