Predicting financial distress and corporate failure: A review from the state-of-the-art definitions, modeling, sampling, and featuring approaches
Predicting financial distress and corporate failure: A review from the state-of-the-art definitions, modeling, sampling, and featuring approaches
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DOI：
10.1016/j.knosys.2013.12.006
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发表时间：
2014-02
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jie Sun;Hui Li;Qinghua Huang;Kai-Yu He
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jie Sun;Hui Li;Qinghua Huang;Kai-Yu He
财务困境预测（FDP），又称企业失败预测、破产预测，作为一个热门话题，在会计、金融、商业、工程等各个领域的决策中都扮演着重要的角色。FDP的学术研究已有近80年的历史，相关文献丰富，但对研究者来说，这些文献往往显得比较混乱，使他们感到困惑。本文通过对目前国内外有关FDP的文献进行全面的总结、分析和评价，以期为FDP的研究提供参考。本文从新世纪财务困境的定义、财务困境模型、财务困境抽样方法和财务困境特征化方法四个方面对财务困境的研究现状进行了综述。根据当前FDP建模技术的发展现状，将FDP建模分为纯单分类器建模、混合单分类器建模、集成建模、动态FDP建模和群决策建模等几类。按训练抽样与测试抽样、单一行业抽样与跨行业抽样、平衡抽样与不平衡抽样等配对分类，对FDP的抽样方法进行了分类和评述。从定性选择和定性定量结合两个方面对FDP的表征方法进行了分类和评述。本文从各个类别的角度对当前的研究进行了评述，并提出了进一步的研究课题。本文对该领域的研究和应用具有一定的指导意义。
As a hot topic, financial distress prediction (FDP), or called as corporate failure prediction, bankruptcy prediction, acts as an important role in decision-making of various areas, including: accounting, finance, business, and engineering. Since academic research on FDP has gone on for nearly eighty years, there are abundant literatures on this topic, which may appear chaotic to the researchers of the field and make them feel confused. This paper contributes to the current review researches by making a full summary, analysis and evaluation on the current literatures of FDP. The current literatures of FDP are reviewed from the following four unique aspects: definition of financial distress in the new century, FDP modeling, sampling approaches for FDP, and featuring approaches for FDP. By considering the new state-of-the-art techniques in this area, FDP modeling are classified and reviewed by the following groups: namely, modeling with pure single classifier, modeling with hybrid single classifier, modeling by ensemble techniques, dynamic FDP modeling, and modeling with group decision-making techniques. Sampling methods for FDP are classified and reviewed by the following paired groups, namely: training sampling and testing sampling, single industry sampling and cross-industry sampling, balanced sampling and imbalanced sampling. Featuring methods for FDP are categorized and reviewed by qualitative selection and combination of qualitative and quantitative selection. We comment on the current researches from the view of each category and propose further research topics. The review paper is valuable to guide research and application of the area.