Estimated decadal changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat flux 1993-2004
Estimated decadal changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat flux 1993-2004
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1993-2004年北大西洋经向翻转环流和热通量的年代际变化估计
DOI：
10.1175/jpo2957.1
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
P. Heimbach
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Wunsch;P. Heimbach
摘要利用1992-2004年全球1°模式的最小二乘约束结果，描述了北大西洋纬向翻转环流和相关热通量在26°N的明显变化。最小二乘拟合既稳定又充分接近数据，使分析值得进行。12年来的变化在空间和时间上都很复杂。北大西洋1 200米以上的净体积通量在统计上有一个微弱的显著趋势，略有下降（-0.19 ± 0.05 Sv yr−1; 1 Sv <$106 m3 s−1），但北大西洋深层水的流出和深海沃茨的流入相应加强。纬向热通量的轻微相关趋势非常小，在统计上不显著。月与月之间的变化意味着，单节测定的热量和体积通量受到严重的混叠误差。
Abstract Results from a global 1° model constrained by least squares to a multiplicity of datasets over the interval 1992–2004 are used to describe apparent changes in the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation and associated heat fluxes at 26°N. The least squares fit is both stable and adequately close to the data to make the analysis worthwhile. Changes over the 12 yr are spatially and temporally complex. A weak statistically significant trend is found in net North Atlantic volume flux above about 1200 m, which drops slightly (−0.19 ± 0.05 Sv yr−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) but with a corresponding strengthening of the outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water and inflow of abyssal waters. The slight associated trend in meridional heat flux is very small and not statistically significant. The month-to-month variability implies that single-section determinations of heat and volume flux are subject to serious aliasing errors.