The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy
The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy
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DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2016.09.003
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Staffell, Iain
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hdidouan, Daniel;Staffell, Iain
社会对天气系统的依赖已经扩大到包括风力涡轮机的发电。气候变化正在改变大气中的能量流动，这将影响风力发电的经济潜力。风力资源的变化及其对能源行业的上游影响受到了有限的学术关注，尽管他们的风险赚取投资者的兴趣，我们提出了一个框架，评估气候变化对风能成本的影响，从每小时风速分布的变化，从辐射强迫到能源输出和风电场的平准化电力成本（LCOE）。本文概述了这个框架的概念证明，探索评估风资源的全球气候模型的局限性，和一种新的威布尔传递函数来识别气候信号。结果是混合的：容量因素在一些地区增加，在其他地区减少，而每年的变化一般增加。这突出了重要的金融和风险影响，可将其纳入政策，以加强能源系统对气候变化影响的适应能力。我们呼吁更加重视气候科学中的风资源建模。(C)2016年6月，作者。爱思唯尔有限公司出版
Society's dependence on weather systems has broadened to include electricity generation from wind turbines. Climate change is altering energy flows in the atmosphere, which will affect the economic potential of wind power. Changes to wind resources and their upstream impacts on the energy industry have received limited academic attention, despite their risks earning interest from investors.We propose a framework for assessing the impact of climate change on the cost of wind energy, going from the change in hourly wind speed distributions from radiative forcing through to energy output and levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from wind farms. The paper outlines the proof of concept for this framework, exploring the limitations of global climate models for assessing wind resources, and a novel Weibull transfer function to characterise the climate signal.The framework is demonstrated by considering the UK's wind resources to 2100. Results are mixed: capacity factors increase in some regions and decrease in others, while the year-to-year variation generally increases. This highlights important financial and risk impacts which can be adopted into policy to enhance energy system resilience to the impacts of climate change. We call for greater emphasis to be placed on modelling wind resources in climate science. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.