Evaluating the probability of avoiding disease-related extinctions of Panamanian amphibians through captive breeding programs
Evaluating the probability of avoiding disease-related extinctions of Panamanian amphibians through captive breeding programs
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DOI：
10.1111/acv.12249
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发表时间：
2016-08-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Ibanez, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gratwicke, B.;Ross, H.;Ibanez, R.
世界各地的两栖动物正在减少目前无法减轻的威胁，使其无法保护自然栖息地的一些物种。新热带山区的两栖动物就是一个例子，在那里，与疾病有关的严重下降促使人们呼吁建立圈养保证殖民地，以避免灭绝。我们调查了巴拿马两栖动物的专家，以确定避免壶菌病相关的预防使用圈养繁殖计划的概率。我们根据对壶菌病的易感性对巴拿马两栖动物物种进行了排名，然后计算了避免灭绝的可能性，作为三种概率的乘积，包括（1）找到足够的创始人动物，（2）成功地圈养这些物种，（3）在野外灭绝。对于许多稀有物种来说，找到足够的动物来建立一个圈养的原始种群的可能性很低，特别是蝾螈和螈。曾经经常遇到但已经消失的青蛙也很低，包括Chiriquiensis，Craugastor emcelae，C。obesus，C. punctariolus，尖吻隐翅虫C. rhyacobatrachus、Eknomiohyla rabborum、峡蛙（Isthmohyla calypsa）和卵蛙（Oophaga speciosa）。我们的研究结果表明，圈养繁殖可以提高避免物种灭绝的几率，这些物种已经严重下降或可能下降，由于壶菌病，包括Atelopus certus，A。glyphus，A. limosus、A. varius、黑腹拟步行虫A. zeteki、Anotheca spinosa、Gastrotheca cornuta、Agalychnis lemur和Hemiphractus fasciatus。专家预测的优先物种对壶菌病高度敏感，也可能从迁地管理中受益，包括Craugastortabasarae，C。azueroensis、C. evanesco、蟾蜍形Strabomantis bufoniformis和巴拿马冠龟Colostethus panamansis。尽管存在高度的不确定性，但这种专家评估方法使我们能够改进巴拿马圈养两栖动物计划的优先事项，并确定优先保护行动，更清楚地了解成功的可能性。
Amphibians around the world are declining from threats that cannot currently be mitigated, making it impossible to safeguard some species in their natural habitats. Amphibians in the mountainous neotropics are one example where severe disease-related declines prompted calls for the establishment of captive assurance colonies to avoid extinctions. We surveyed experts in Panamanian amphibians to determine the probability of avoiding chytridiomycosis-related extinctions using captive breeding programs. We ranked Panamanian amphibian species by perceived susceptibility to chytridiomycosis, then calculated the likelihood of avoiding extinction as the product of three probabilities, which include (1) finding sufficient founder animals, (2) successfully breeding these species in captivity and (3) becoming extinct in the wild. The likelihood of finding enough animals to create a captive founding population was low for many rare species, especially for salamanders and caecilians. It was also low for frogs which were once regularly encountered, but have already disappeared including Atelopus chiriquiensis, Craugastor emcelae, C. obesus, C. punctariolus, C. rhyacobatrachus, Ecnomiohyla rabborum, Isthmohyla calypsa and Oophaga speciosa. Our results indicate that captive breeding could improve the odds of avoiding extinction for species that have severely declined or are likely to decline due to chytridiomycosis including Atelopus certus, A. glyphus, A. limosus, A. varius, A. zeteki, Anotheca spinosa, Gastrotheca cornuta, Agalychnis lemur and Hemiphractus fasciatus. Priority species that experts predicted were highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis that might also benefit from ex situ management include Craugastor tabasarae, C. azueroensis, C. evanesco, Strabomantis bufoniformis and Colostethus panamansis. In spite of high levels of uncertainty, this expert assessment approach allowed us to refine our priorities for captive amphibian programs in Panama and identify priority conservation actions with a clearer understanding of the probability of success.