Economic analysis of alternative nutritional management of dual-purpose cow herds in central coastal Veracruz, Mexico
Economic analysis of alternative nutritional management of dual-purpose cow herds in central coastal Veracruz, Mexico
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DOI：
10.1007/s11250-011-0050-8
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Rueda-Maldonado, Bertha L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Absalon-Medina, Victor Antonio;Nicholson, Charles F.;Rueda-Maldonado, Bertha L.
市场信息与预测的投入产出关系相结合，对墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯中部沿海地区创世纪农民组织的双重用途成员群的替代营养管理进行了经济分析。在使用康奈尔净碳水化合物和蛋白质系统模型（6.0版）的生产力限制和潜力的相关研究中，通过结构化的模拟集获得了典型管理和替代喂养情景下的奶牛生产力结果。采用部分预算方法和敏感性分析，根据牛奶收入相对于饲料成本的预期变化（牛奶销售收入的变化减去饲料成本的变化）确定经济上可行的替代方案。在沿海的韦拉克鲁斯州，牧场主有很大的经济激励，从584美元到1131美元的预测净利润率，通过改善以优质草和豆类饲料为基础的饮食，在奶牛的三次哺乳期中将牛奶销量提高74%。这一增量等于或超过每头奶牛一生中至少一次额外泌乳的总产奶量。此外，边际收益率（采用替代做法时，牛奶收入超过饲料成本的变化除以可变成本的变化）为3.3 +/- 0.8，表明在典型管理下，有明确的经济激励措施来消除由于长期能量不足和未成熟奶牛生长障碍而导致的基本生产力脆弱性。敏感性分析表明，在各种市场条件下，经济结果是稳健的。
Market information was combined with predicted input-output relationships in an economic analysis of alternative nutritional management for dual-purpose member herds of the Genesis farmer organization of central coastal Veracruz, Mexico. Cow productivity outcomes for typical management and alternative feeding scenarios were obtained from structured sets of simulations in a companion study of productivity limitations and potentials using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System model (Version 6.0). Partial budgeting methods and sensitivity analysis were used to identify economically viable alternatives based on expected change in milk income over feed cost (change in revenues from milk sales less change in feed costs). Herd owners in coastal Veracruz have large economic incentives, from $584 to $1,131 in predicted net margin, to increase milk sales by up to 74% across a three-lactation cow lifetime by improving diets based on good quality grass and legume forages. This increment is equal to, or exceeds, in value the total yield from at least one additional lactation per cow lifetime. Furthermore, marginal rates of return (change in milk income over feed costs divided by change in variable costs when alternative practices are used) of 3.3 +/- 0.8 indicate clear economic incentives to remove fundamental productivity vulnerabilities due to chronic energy deficits and impeded growth of immature cows under typical management. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the economic outcomes are robust for a variety of market conditions.