Trends and patterns in fatal US motorcycle crashes, 2000-2016.
Trends and patterns in fatal US motorcycle crashes, 2000-2016.
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2000 年至 2016 年美国致命摩托车事故的趋势和模式。
DOI：
10.1080/15389588.2019.1628224
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Zhu,Motao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chaudhuri,Urmimala;Ratnapradipa,KendraL;Shen,Sijun;Rice,ThomasM;Smith,GaryA;Zhu,Motao
目的：调查摩托车手死亡趋势，并通过摩托车手人口统计学和碰撞特征识别高危人群。方法：我们使用死亡分析报告系统（法尔斯）数据库（2000-2016）跟踪死亡率趋势，并使用泊松混合效应回归模型对2000-2001年和2007-2008年以及2009-2010年和2015- 2016年进行量化。2000-2001年和2007-2008年之间的总体病死率比值为1.60 [95%置信区间（CI）：1.51-1.70]，2009-2010年和2015-2016年之间为1.09（95% CI：1.02-1.18）。所有年龄组的死亡率都有所上升，特别是60岁及以上的摩托车手。18-29岁的人总体死亡率最高。在怀俄明州、南达科他州和南卡罗来纳州，摩托车和性别标准化的州死亡率一直最高，马萨诸塞州、纽约和新泽西最低。结论：2000年至2016年期间，摩托车死亡率总体和所有年龄组都有所增加。年龄最大的骑手的死亡率呈最大的增长趋势。研究结果强调了摩托车驾驶员死亡的持续公共卫生负担，并进一步强调了提高摩托车安全性的重要性。
Objective:To investigate trends of motorcyclist fatalities and identify at-risk populations by motorcyclist demographics and crash characteristics.Methods:We used the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database (2000–2016) to track fatality rate trends, which were quantified by using Poisson mixed-effects regression models comparing 2000–2001 and 2007–2008, as well as 2009–2010 and 2015–2016.Results:The overall fatality rate per 100,000 population increased from 2000 to 2016, defined by two trend lines—before and after the economic recession in 2008–2009. The overall fatality rate ratio between 2000–2001 and 2007–2008 was 1.60 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.51–1.70], and between 2009–2010 and 2015–2016 was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02–1.18). Fatality rates increased among all age groups, particularly for motorcyclists aged 60 and older. Those aged 18–29 had the highest fatality rates overall. Age-and-sex standardized state fatality rates were consistently highest in Wyoming, South Dakota, and South Carolina and lowest in Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey.Conclusion:Motorcycle fatality rates increased overall and across all age groups between 2000 and 2016. Fatalities for the oldest riders showed the steadiest increasing trends. Results highlight the continued public health burden of motorcyclist fatalities and, by extension, the importance of improving motorcycle safety.