Development and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram including tumor deposits could better predict survival for colorectal cancer: a population-based study.

Development and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram including tumor deposits could better predict survival for colorectal cancer: a population-based study.
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包括肿瘤沉积在内的新型预后列线图的开发和验证可以更好地预测结直肠癌的生存率:一项基于人群的研究

DOI:
10.21037/atm-20-4728
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发表时间:
2021-04
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Fang X
Fang X
中科院分区:
医学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bai R;Tan Y;Li D;Yang M;Yu L;Yuan Y;Fang X

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结直肠癌(CRC)预后中肿瘤沉积物(TDs)的数量仍存在争议。我们评估TDs的数量是否会影响III期CRC患者的预后。方法采用Cox比例风险模型进行单因素和多因素分析。Kaplan-Meier法估计生存曲线。使用X-Tile确定最佳截止点。患者按1:1随机分为训练集和测试集。建立了III期结直肠癌患者的预后图。采用一致性指数(C-index)和校正图对Nomogram模型进行评价。结果共分析无td患者18043例(84.69%),合并td患者3263例(15.31%)。TDs患者的癌症特异性生存率(CSS)明显较差(P< 0.001)。TDs数量是影响III期CRC患者CSS的独立因素。根据种族、诊断年龄、肿瘤部位、组织学分级、病理分型、T、N、TDs、化疗等因素构建III期结直肠癌患者的CSS图。在训练集中,c指数为0.762 (95% CI: 0.752-0.772)。在测试集中,CSS nomogram C-index为0.759 (95% CI: 0.749-0.768)。模态图模型标定图的质量较高。结论TDs的存在是III期CRC的独立危险预后因素。TDs的数量对预后有很大的影响。
BackgroundThe number of tumor deposits (TDs) in colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis remains debated. We evaluated whether the number of TDs affects prognosis in stage III CRC patients.MethodsUnivariate and multivariate analyses were performed with Cox proportional hazards models. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival curves. The best cutoff was determined using X-Tile. Patients were 1: 1 randomly divided into the training set or the testing set. Prognostic nomogram was established for stage III CRC patients. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot were used to assess Nomogram models.ResultsIn total, 18,043 (84.69%) CRC patients without TDs and 3,263 (15.31%) patients with TDs were analyzed. Patients with TDs had significantly worse cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates (P< 0.001). The number of TDs is an independent factor for the CSS of stage III CRC patients. CSS nomogram of stage III CRC patients was constructed based on race, age at diagnosis, tumor location, histological grade, pathological type, T, N, TDs, chemotherapy. In training set, C-index for CSS nomogram 0.762 (95% CI: 0.752–0.772). In testing set, the C-index for CSS nomogram 0.759 (95% CI: 0.749–0.768). The quality of calibration plots of nomogram models was high.ConclusionsThe presence of TDs is an independent risk prognostic factor for stage III CRC. The number of TDs had a high proportion of prognostic impact.
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