Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
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DOI：
10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020
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发表时间：
2020-09-28
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Zheng, Weipeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Josephine R.;Brierley, Chris M.;Zheng, Weipeng
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是当前气候中最强的年际气候变率模式，影响着地球仪的生态系统、农业和天气系统，但未来对ENSO频率和幅度的预测仍然高度不确定。在一系列过去和未来的气候模拟中比较ENSO的变化，可以深入了解ENSO对平均状态变化的敏感性，包括入射太阳辐射的季节性变化，全球平均温度和海洋表面温度的空间格局。由于一套全面的耦合模型模拟，现在可用于古气候时间切片（末次冰期最大，全新世中期和末次间冰期）和理想化的未来变暖情景（每年1%的CO2增加，突然四次CO2增加），这使得详细评估ENSO变化在这一广泛的气候范围。这种比较有助于限制未来预测的不确定性，使人们了解模式的一致性和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动对一系列因素的敏感性。大多数模型模拟的ENSO活动在最后一次间冰期和全新世中期的实验一致减弱，并有一个合奏平均减少在赤道西太平洋的变化在末次冰期最大的实验。全球温度的变化产生较弱的降水响应ENSO在寒冷的末次冰期最大的实验和增强的降水响应ENSO在温暖的增加CO2的实验。在所有实验中，没有发现ENSO振幅变化与年周期之间的一致关系。
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1% per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.