Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
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发表时间：
2014-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Stammer, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Slangen, A. B. A.;Carson, M.;Stammer, D.
我们提出 21 世纪末的区域海平面预测和相关的不确定性估计。我们在 CMIP5 气候模型中展示了由于海洋环流变化、吸热量增加和大气压力导致的海平面变化的区域预测。这些与基于模型和观测的陆地冰、地下水枯竭和冰川均衡调整的区域贡献相结合，包括质量重新分布引起的重力效应。考虑温和和温暖的气候变化情景，得出全球平均海平面分别上升 0.54 +/- 0.19 m 和 0.71 +/- 0.28 m（平均值 +/- 1 sigma）。然而，从区域来看，北大西洋沿岸和南极绕极流沿岸地区的变化高达 30%，亚热带和赤道地区的变化高达 20%，证实了之前研究中发现的模式。北大西洋副极地、北冰洋和南极洲西部海岸预计仅占全球平均值的 50%。每个组成部分的不确定性估计表明，陆地冰的贡献在总体不确定性中占主导地位。
We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 +/- 0.19 m and 0.71 +/- 0.28 m respectively (mean +/- 1 sigma). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.