A GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC-MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF INFECTIOUS-DISEASE FINAL SIZE DATA
A GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC-MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF INFECTIOUS-DISEASE FINAL SIZE DATA
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DOI：
10.2307/2532652
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发表时间：
1991-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
HABER, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ADDY, CL;LONGINI, IM;HABER, M
Ball（1986，Advances in Applied Probability 18，289-310）开发了一种随机传染病模型，其中允许传染期长度的分布具有可由其拉普拉斯变换描述的任何分布。 我们扩展了这个模型，使得感染可以在人群中传播，也可以从人群外的不明来源传播。 此外，可以对群体中的离散异质性进行建模，以纳入可变的易感性、可变的感染性和/或混合行为。 该模型拟合的血清学数据，从两个流感流行特库姆塞，密歇根州，使用最大似然估计程序。 估计数显示了按年龄组分列的聚类模式。
A stochastic infectious disease model was developed by Ball (1986, Advances in Applied Probability 18, 289-310) in which the distribution of the length of the infectious period is allowed to have any distribution that can be described by its Laplace transform. We extend this model such that the infection can be transmitted within the population or from an unspecified source outside the population. Also, discrete heterogeneity in the population can be modeled to incorporate variable susceptibility, variable infectivity, and/or mixing behaviors. The model is fitted to serologic data from two influenza epidemics in Tecumseh, Michigan, using maximum likelihood estimation procedures. The estimates show a clustering pattern by age groups.