A Shift-Share Method for the Analysis of Regional Fertility Change: An Application to the Decline in Childbearing in Italy, 1952-1991
A Shift-Share Method for the Analysis of Regional Fertility Change: An Application to the Decline in Childbearing in Italy, 1952-1991
复制标题
分析区域生育率变化的转移分享法：1952-1991 年意大利生育率下降的应用
DOI：
10.1111/j.1538-4632.2004.tb01120.x
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发表时间：
2003
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
D. Plane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rachel S. Franklin;D. Plane
本文将经济地理学和区域科学中常用的工具--偏离-份额分析应用于1952-1991年意大利的区域生育率变化。在第二次世界大战后的这段时间里，意大利的生育率下降了33%以上，但下降幅度因地区而异。此外，出生率下降的人口学根源也没有得到充分理解。使用意大利19个地区的出生数据，这项分析能够打破出生率的区域变化分为三个主要组成部分：国家效应，队列效应和区域差异效应，这反过来又提供了深入了解生育率变化的根源在区域一级。这三个组成部分的变化进一步细分，以说明人口变化引起的变化与出生率实际变化（每个妇女生育的子女数量）有关的变化之间的差异。意大利的北部和南部之间的强烈的区域差异被证明。
This paper applies shift-share analysis, a tool often used in economic geography and regional science, to regional fertility change in Italy, 1952-1991. During this post-World War II period, Italian fertility declined by over 33 percent, but the decline varied widely from region to region. Moreover, the demographic originations of the decline in births are not fully understood. Using birth data for nineteen Italian regions, this analysis is able to break regional change in births into three main components: a national effect, a cohort effect, and a regional differential effect, which in turn provide insight into the roots of fertility change at the regional level. These three components of change are then further disaggregated to account for the differences between changes due to population change and those related to actual changes in birth rates (the number of children produced by each woman). Strong regional differences between the north and south of Italy are demonstrated.