Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease
Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease
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DOI：
10.2460/ajvr.2003.64.195
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发表时间：
2003-02-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Carpenter, TE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bates, TW;Thurmond, MC;Carpenter, TE
建立一个空间流行病模型来模拟口蹄疫（FMD）病毒的群内和群间传播。样本群体-2，238个牛群，代表牛肉、奶制品、猪、山羊和绵羊，以及位于加州的弗雷斯诺、金斯和图拉雷县的5个销售场。程序-使用蒙特-卡罗模拟，建立了一个空间随机流行模拟模型，用于识别随机选择的指示畜群后可能感染口蹄疫的新畜群，并评估实施强制性控制策略后的流行进展。该模型包括口蹄疫感染的物种特异性过渡期、畜群的位置、畜群之间的直接和间接接触率、以及根据专家对直接和间接接触传播概率的意见得出的概率分布，以及在指定疫区和监测区实施行动限制后接触减少的情况。补充控制计划的模型包括屠宰感染畜群指定距离内的所有动物，仅屠宰通过使用模型模拟识别的高风险动物，并对感染牛群半径5- 50公里范围内的所有动物进行疫苗接种。结论和临床相关性-FMD模型代表了用于规划生物安全和紧急情况的工具-响应计划，并比较适合特定人群的控制和根除口蹄疫的各种策略的潜在效益。
Objective-To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus.Sample Population-2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California.Procedure-Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies.Results-The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds.Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.