The Rainfall Annual Cycle Bias over East Africa in CMIP5 Coupled Climate Models
The Rainfall Annual Cycle Bias over East Africa in CMIP5 Coupled Climate Models
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-15-0323.1
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发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Wenchang Yang;R. Seager;M. Cane;B. Lyon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wenchang Yang;R. Seager;M. Cane;B. Lyon
东非有两个雨季：长雨季[3月至5月（MAM）]和短雨季[3月至12月（OND）]。大多数CMIP 3/5耦合模式高估了短时雨而低估了长时雨。在这项研究中，东非降雨偏差进行了研究，通过比较耦合的历史模拟CMIP 5相应的SST强迫AMIP模拟。大部分的调查是集中在MRI-CGCM 3模式，成功地再现了观测到的降雨年周期在东非的AMIP实验，但其耦合的历史模拟有一个类似的，但更强的偏见耦合多模式平均。在东非的历史AMIP月气候降水偏差可以解释的偏差对流不稳定（CI），这是占主导地位的近地面水分静态能量（MSE），并最终由MSE的水分成分。西印度洋海表温度（SST）对近地表MSE偏差有调制作用。温暖的...
AbstractEast Africa has two rainy seasons: the long rains [March–May (MAM)] and the short rains [October–December (OND)]. Most CMIP3/5 coupled models overestimate the short rains while underestimating the long rains. In this study, the East African rainfall bias is investigated by comparing the coupled historical simulations from CMIP5 to the corresponding SST-forced AMIP simulations. Much of the investigation is focused on the MRI-CGCM3 model, which successfully reproduces the observed rainfall annual cycle in East Africa in the AMIP experiment but its coupled historical simulation has a similar but stronger bias as the coupled multimodel mean. The historical–AMIP monthly climatology rainfall bias in East Africa can be explained by the bias in the convective instability (CI), which is dominated by the near-surface moisture static energy (MSE) and ultimately by the MSE’s moisture component. The near-surface MSE bias is modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) over the western Indian Ocean. The warm ...