Firm Expectations and Economic Activity
Firm Expectations and Economic Activity
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坚定预期和经济活动
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3384314
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gernot Müller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zeno Enders;Franziska Huennekes;Gernot Müller
我们评估对未来生产的坚定预期如何影响当前的生产和定价决策。我们的分析基于对德国制造业企业的大规模调查。为了确定预期的因果效应，我们依赖于调查响应的时间，并将基本面相同但对未来看法不同的公司进行匹配。预计未来产量将增加（减少）的公司与预计产量不会变化的公司相比，提高当前产量和价格的可能性高（低）15个百分点。第二步，我们表明期望也很重要，即使它们被证明是不正确的。最后，我们汇总了各公司的预期误差，发现它们约占总波动的15%。
We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15% of aggregate fluctuations.