The Recent Emergence of Arctic Amplification
The Recent Emergence of Arctic Amplification
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl094086
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发表时间：
2021-08-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wagner, Till J. W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
England, Mark R.;Eisenman, Ian;Wagner, Till J. W.
在对未来变暖的气候模式模拟和古气候记录中，可以强有力地看到北极放大效应。在这里，我们关注过去一个世纪的观察。我们表明，北极放大只是最近的一个现象，在这一时期的大部分时间里，北极变冷，而全球平均温度上升。为了研究发生这种情况的原因，我们分析了不同强迫情景下综合气候模式模拟的大集合。我们的研究结果表明，温室气体造成的全球变暖在很大程度上被气溶胶造成的区域变冷所抵消，在此期间，内部气候变率也有助于北极变冷和全球变暖趋势。这表明，北极放大的中断是由20世纪特有的多种因素共同造成的，预计北极变暖的加剧将是未来一个世纪气候变化的一贯特征。北极放大是指北极变暖的速度快于全球平均速度的现象。在气候模式模拟以及对过去气候变化的古代用重建中，广泛发现了北极放大现象发生的证据。在这项研究中，我们调查了在过去一个世纪的观测中北极放大发生的程度。我们表明，北极放大只是最近的一个现象，在20世纪的大部分时间里，北极变冷，而全球平均温度上升。我们使用一系列气候模式模拟来调查这种情况发生的原因，我们发现造成这种相反趋势的主要原因有两个。首先，气溶胶造成的区域降温抵消了北极地区温室气体造成的变暖。然而，这并不能完全解释观察到的趋势。第二，气候系统的自然波动表现为全球变暖下北极变冷的模式。这表明，北极放大的中断是由20世纪特有的多种因素共同造成的，这意味着，预计北极变暖的加剧将是未来一个世纪气候变化的一贯特征。
Arctic Amplification is robustly seen in climate model simulations of future warming and in the paleoclimate record. Here, we focus on the past century of observations. We show that Arctic Amplification is only a recent phenomenon, and that for much of this period the Arctic cooled while the global-mean temperature rose. To investigate why this occurred, we analyze large ensembles of comprehensive climate model simulations under different forcing scenarios. Our results suggest that the global warming from greenhouse gases was largely offset in the Arctic by regional cooling due to aerosols, with internal climate variability also contributing to Arctic cooling and global warming trends during this period. This suggests that the disruption of Arctic Amplification was due to a combination of factors unique to the 20th century, and that enhanced Arctic warming should be expected to be a consistent feature of climate change over the coming century.Plain Language Summary Arctic Amplification is the phenomenon by which the Arctic warms at a faster rate than the global average. Evidence for the occurrence of Arctic Amplification is widely found in climate model simulations as well as in paleo proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. In this study, we investigate the extent to which Arctic Amplification has occurred in observations from the past century. We show that Arctic Amplification is only a recent phenomenon, and that for much of the 20th century, the Arctic cooled while the global-mean temperature rose. We investigate why this happened using a range of climate model simulations, and we find that there were two main causes for these opposing trends. The first is that regional cooling from aerosols counteracted the warming from greenhouse gases in the Arctic. However, this cannot fully explain the observed trends. The second is that natural fluctuations of the climate system manifested in a pattern of Arctic cooling under global warming. This suggests that the disruption of Arctic Amplification was due to a combination of factors unique to the 20th century, implying that enhanced Arctic warming should be expected to be a consistent feature of climate change over the coming century.