A review of effective flood forecasting, warning and response system for application in South Africa
A review of effective flood forecasting, warning and response system for application in South Africa
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南非有效洪水预报、预警和响应系统的审查
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发表时间：
2002
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通讯作者：
L. D. Plessis
中科院分区：
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作者：
L. D. Plessis
2000年2月，飓风Eline在南非造成严重水灾。据估计，损失总额约为30亿兰特。南非农民损失了超过50%的出口产品。洪水对人类和动物物种的破坏和破坏在莫桑比克更为严重。南非的重点仍然是结构性缓解措施。决策者寻求外国的支持和资金，特别是在洪水后的重建阶段，只是为了修复目的。为确定不同河段的可持续洪水标准而进行的科学危害和风险评估几乎没有得到重视，而这将有助于制定适当的减灾和预防战略。在洪水灾害发生后，其目的主要是确保洪水损失得到补偿，并使洪水受害者的生活水平恢复到洪水发生前的水平。此外，主要由于南非目前经历的体制问题，参与灾害管理的机构的作用和责任没有明确确定。最后提到的是南非没有正式的洪水预报、预警和响应系统（FFWRS）的原因。在大多数存在洪水预警系统的情况下，有证据表明它是不够的，主要是因为缺乏对一个运作良好、适当的FFWRS的知识和理解。可持续的预防和缓解战略应在综合综合的集水区管理办法内实现。这种方法是多学科的，因此不是基于单一的工程解决方案。本文的主要目的是讨论整体综合集水区管理方法所涵盖的一个方面，即洪水预报、警报和响应系统，它有助于预防和减轻洪水损失。水处理，28(2),2002:129-138
Cyclone Eline caused severe flood damage in South Africa during February 2000. It has been estimated that the total amount lost was approximately R3 000 million. South African farmers lost more than 50% of their export products. Flood damages and disruptions to humans and animal species were even bigger in Mozambique. The emphasis in South Africa is still on, inter alia, structural mitigation measures. Policy-makers seek foreign support and finances, especially during the reconstruction phase after floods, for reparation purposes only. Little to no attention has been given to scientific hazard and risk assessments to determine a sustainable flood standard for different river reaches, which will contribute to appropriate mitigation and prevention strategies. The aim, after flood disasters, is primarily to ensure that flood losses will be covered and to restore the level of existence of flood victims to where it was before the flood. Furthermore, mainly because of institutional problems currently experienced in South Africa, roles and responsibilities of institutions involved in disaster management are not clearly identified. Last mentioned are the reason for absence in South Africa of a formal flood forecast, warning and response system (FFWRS). In most cases where a flood warning system exists, there is evidence that it is insufficient, mainly because of a lack of knowledge and understanding of a well-functioning, appropriate FFWRS. Sustainable prevention and mitigation strategies should be achieved within a holistic integrated catchment management approach. Such approach is multidisciplinary and is therefore not based on a single engineering solution. The main aim of this paper is to discuss one aspect covered by a holistic integrated catchment management approach, namely a flood forecast, warning and response system, which contributes to the prevention and mitigation of flood losses. WaterSA Vol.28(2) 2002: 129-138