Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol wet removal
Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol wet removal
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DOI：
10.1029/2005jd006937
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发表时间：
2006-11-21
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Horowitz, Larry W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horowitz, Larry W.
对流层臭氧和气溶胶是辐射上重要的痕量物种，其浓度自工业化前时代以来急剧增加，预计未来将继续变化。根据估计的历史排放量和四种不同的未来排放情景(政府间气候变化专门委员会关于排放情景A2、A1B、B1和A1FI的特别报告)，模拟了1860年至2100年臭氧和气溶胶浓度的演变。模拟表明，自前工业时代以来，对流层臭氧负荷增加了50%，硫酸盐和碳质气溶胶负荷分别增加了3倍和6倍。根据排放情况的不同，预计下个世纪的臭氧变化从-6%到+43%不等。预计硫酸盐浓度在未来几十年将增加，但随后将比2000年的值下降2100%至4-45%。模拟的臭氧浓度与目前的观测结果和最近的趋势很好地吻合。工业化前的臭氧表面浓度对假定的人为和生物质燃烧排放很敏感，但在所有情况下，他们都高估了那个时代为数不多的可用测量数据。模拟的对流层气溶胶负荷对模式中关于气溶胶湿沉积速率的假设的敏感度高达2倍。在地球物理流体动力学实验室耦合气候模式中提供了本研究产生的臭氧和气溶胶浓度作为气候强迫因子，以评估它们对气候的影响。这项研究的气溶胶分布和由此产生的光学厚度在P.Ginoux等人的一篇配套论文中进行了评估。(2006年)。
Tropospheric ozone and aerosols are radiatively important trace species, whose concentrations have increased dramatically since preindustrial times and are projected to continue to change in the future. The evolution of ozone and aerosol concentrations from 1860 to 2100 is simulated on the basis of estimated historical emissions and four different future emission scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1B, B1, and A1FI). The simulations suggest that the tropospheric burden of ozone has increased by 50% and sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol burdens have increased by factors of 3 and 6, respectively, since preindustrial times. Projected ozone changes over the next century range from -6% to + 43%, depending on the emissions scenario. Sulfate concentrations are projected to increase for the next several decades but then to decrease by 2100 to 4-45% below their 2000 values. Simulated ozone concentrations agree well with present-day observations and recent trends. Preindustrial surface concentrations of ozone are shown to be sensitive to the assumed anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, but in all cases they overestimate the few available measurements from that era. Simulated tropospheric burdens of aerosols are sensitive by up to a factor of 2 to assumptions about the rate of aerosol wet deposition in the model. The concentrations of ozone and aerosols produced by this study are provided as climate-forcing agents in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model to estimate their effects on climate. The aerosol distributions from this study and the resulting optical depths are evaluated in a companion paper by P. Ginoux et al. (2006).