Markov Model for Storm Water Pipe Deterioration
Markov Model for Storm Water Pipe Deterioration
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)1076-0342(2002)8:2(49
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发表时间：
2002-06
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Tom Micevski;G. Kuczera;P. Coombes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tom Micevski;G. Kuczera;P. Coombes
有效管理雨水管网需要准确评估管道的结构状况。事实上，最近澳大利亚会计准则AAS27的引入迫使地方政府编制年度财务报表，包括其雨水网络的折旧价值。评估折旧的一个合理方法是将其建立在结构恶化的基础上。本研究提出了一个马尔可夫模型的结构恶化的雨水管道。该模型进行了校准，使用贝叶斯技术，结构条件的数据，从雨水资产数据库的纽卡斯尔市理事会（澳大利亚）。结果表明，马尔可夫模型与数据是一致的。管道特性的直径，建筑材料，土壤类型，和暴露分类被发现影响恶化过程。它还表明，AAS27所要求的折旧方法显着高估了结构恶化。
Effective management of storm water pipe networks requires an accurate assessment of the structural condition of the pipes. Indeed, the recent introduction of Australian accounting standard AAS27 compels local governments to prepare annual financial statements, including the depreciated value of their storm water network. A rational approach to assessing depreciation is to base it on structural deterioration. This study presents a Markov model for the structural deterioration of storm water pipes. The model is calibrated, using Bayesian techniques, to structural condition data from the storm water asset database of the Newcastle City Council (Australia). It is shown that the Markov model is consistent with the data. The pipe characteristics of diameter, construction material, soil type, and exposure classification were found to influence the deterioration process. It is also shown that the depreciation methods required by AAS27 significantly overestimate the structural deterioration.