One possible uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of low‐oxygen water volume in the Eastern Tropical Pacific
One possible uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of low‐oxygen water volume in the Eastern Tropical Pacific
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东热带太平洋低氧水量 CMIP5 预测中的一个可能的不确定性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yasuhiro Yamanaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Shigemitsu;A. Yamamoto;Akira Oka;Yasuhiro Yamanaka
利用提交给耦合模式比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）的9个地球系统模型的结果，我们确定东热带太平洋（ETP）是未来缺氧（<30 μM）水量变化的不确定性最大的地区，因为不同的模型对该地区缺氧体积和输出通量的正变化和负变化都有不同的预测。我们使用一个单一的离线生物地球化学模型来研究控制ETP缺氧体积随全球变暖的未来变化的因素。氧收支分析表明，赤道潜流（EUC）是控制模型中ETP未来缺氧量变化的关键机制。从所有CMIP5模式和我们的模式的输出中，我们发现从现在到21世纪末，EUC体积运输变化与缺氧水量之间存在显著的负相关关系，这表明EUC对全球变暖的响应可能导致未来ETP缺氧体积预测的一个不确定性。
Using the results from nine Earth system models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we identify the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) as the region with the greatest uncertainty of future changes in oxygen‐deficient (<30 μM) water volumes since different models variously project both positive and negative changes in the oxygen‐deficient volume and export flux there. We investigate the factors controlling future changes in oxygen‐deficient volume in the ETP with global warming using a single off‐line biogeochemical model. Oxygen budget analysis clarifies that the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is the key mechanism controlling future variations in the oxygen‐deficient volume in the ETP in our model. From the outputs of all of the CMIP5 models and our model, we identify a significant negative relationship between changes in the EUC volume transport and the oxygen‐deficient water volume from the present to the end of the 21st century, which indicates that the response of the EUC to global warming leads to one possible uncertainty in future projections of oxygen‐deficient volume in the ETP.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Stramma, Lothar;Johnson, Gregory C.;Mohrholz, Volker
通讯作者：
Mohrholz, Volker