Determinants of financial development in Ethiopia: ARDL approach
Determinants of financial development in Ethiopia: ARDL approach
复制标题
埃塞俄比亚金融发展的决定因素：ARDL 方法
DOI：
10.1080/23322039.2021.1963063
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Teshager Mazengia Asratie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Teshager Mazengia Asratie
可持续的经济增长需要金融部门的发展。然而，埃塞俄比亚的金融发展水平很低。因此，本研究的主要目的是研究埃塞俄比亚金融发展的决定因素。使用1980 - 2019年的年度数据，并采用ARDL估计技术进行检验。私人部门信贷和货币供应量占GDP的百分比被用作因变量。自变量包括外债、存款准备金率、实际汇率、贷款利率、通货膨胀、政治自由指数、贸易开放程度和经济增长。广义货币供给模式在短期和长期均受到政治自由指数、经济增长和贸易开放程度的正向影响。而受利率和存款准备金率的负向影响。然而，实际汇率在长期内具有负作用，在短期内影响不显著。另一方面，私营部门信贷模式受到通货膨胀、政治自由、经济增长和贸易开放的积极影响。同时受外债、存款准备金率和贷款利率的负面影响。私营部门信贷模型的误差修正估计结果显示，调整系数为- 0.263，在5%显著水平上具有统计学意义，即短期偏离长期均衡的调整率为26.3%。广义货币供给模型的调整系数为- 0.254。该研究建议，政府需要提高贸易和生产要素的质量，降低存款准备金率，降低贷款利率，政治。
Abstract Sustainable economic growth requires financial sector development. However, financial development is low in Ethiopia. Hence, the main objective of the study was to examine determinants of financial development in Ethiopia. Annual data from 1980 to 2019 was used and examined by ARDL estimation technique. Private sector credit and money supply as percentage of GDP were used as dependent variables. Independent variables include external debt, reserve requirement, real exchange rate, lending interest rate, inflation, political freedom index, trade openness and economic growth. Broad money supply model is positively affected by political freedom index, economic growth and trade openness both in the short run and long run. While it is negatively affected by interest rate and reserve requirement. However, real exchange rate has negative effect in the long run and insignificant effect in the short run. On the other hand, credit to private sector model is positively affected by inflation, and political freedom, economic growth and trade openness. While it is negatively affected by external debt, reserve requirement and lending interest rate. Error correction estimation result of credit to private sector model shows the adjustment coefficient is −0.263 and statistically significant at 5% level of significance, which means short run deviation from long run equilibrium is adjusted at a rate of 26.3%. The adjustment coefficient for broad money supply model is −0.254. The study recommends that the government needs to improve trade and the quality of factors of production, reduce reserve requirement, reducing interest rate on lending, political.