Thousands Of Lives Could Be Saved In The US During The COVID-19 Pandemic If States Exchanged Ventilators
Thousands Of Lives Could Be Saved In The US During The COVID-19 Pandemic If States Exchanged Ventilators
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00505
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Adelman, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Adelman, Daniel
据认为，在新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行期间，美国没有足够的机械呼吸机来满足每位可能需要的患者。然而，目前还没有分析能够衡量问题的潜在严重程度或提出解决方案。在本文中，我将联邦政府使用的流行病预测模型与文献中对呼吸机可用性的估计相结合，以评估各种情况下的预期短缺。然后，我建议联邦政府组织一项全国性的努力，在各州之间交换呼吸机，以利用需求高峰的跨期差异。我评估了该建议的各种版本，包括使用国家储备，以估计可能挽救的大量生命。在没有其他可行的解决方案的情况下，政府应该认真开展这项工作，或者为未来面临另一场大流行做好协调准备。
It is thought that there are not enough mechanical ventilators in the United States for every patient who may need one during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there has been no analysis that measures the potential magnitude of the problem or proposes a solution. In this article I combine the pandemic forecasting model used by the federal government with estimates of ventilator availability from the literature to assess the expected shortage under various scenarios. I then propose that the federal government organize a national effort for ventilators to be exchanged between states to take advantage of the intertemporal differences in demand peaks. I evaluate versions of this proposal, including use of the national stockpile, to estimate the potentially substantial number of lives that could be saved. In the absence of other viable solutions, the government should begin this effort in earnest, or else make preparations for such coordination should the country face another pandemic in the future.