On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries
On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries
复制标题
欧盟15国与中东欧4国自由贸易协定的双边贸易影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10290-009-0020-7
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
A. Sova
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Caporale;C. Rault;Robert Sova;A. Sova
区域主义的扩张催生了大量分析自由贸易协定对贸易流动影响的理论文献。在本文中，我们专注于欧盟（EU-15）和中欧和东欧国家（CEEC-4，即保加利亚，匈牙利，波兰和罗马尼亚）之间的自由贸易协定（也称为欧洲协议），并通过将协议变量视为内生变量来模拟其对贸易流量的影响。我们的理论框架是引力模型，用于隔离和消除协议变量的潜在内生偏差的计量经济学方法是固定效应向量分解（FEVD）技术。我们的估计结果表明，自由贸易协定对贸易流动产生了积极而重大的影响。这一发现对于将未签署自由贸易协定的一组对照国家（特别是白俄罗斯、俄罗斯联邦和乌克兰）纳入样本是有力的。此外，我们还发现，与欧盟签订FTA协定后的贸易增长率超过了未成为成员国的对照组国家的贸易增长率。
The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries, which did not become members.