Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes
Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1084123
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发表时间：
2003-07-25
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Brüggemann, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Santer, BD;Wehner, MF;Brüggemann, W
观测表明，自1979年以来，对流层（平流层和对流层之间的边界）的高度增加了几百米。在气候模式实验中，类似的增长也很明显。后者表明，人类引起的臭氧和混合良好的温室气体的变化占1979-1999年模拟的对流层顶高度上升的80%。它们的主要贡献是通过平流层的冷却（由臭氧引起）和对流层的变暖（由充分混合的温室气体引起）。在两个不同的观测（“再分析”）数据集中，统计上可以探测到模式预测的对流层顶高度变化的指纹。这一积极的探测结果使我们能够将对流层顶高度的总体变化归因于人为和自然外部强迫的组合，其中人为成分占主导地位。
Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for similar to80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.