The Fukushima Accident and Public Perceptions About Nuclear Power Around the Globe - A Challenge & Response Model
The Fukushima Accident and Public Perceptions About Nuclear Power Around the Globe - A Challenge & Response Model
复制标题
福岛事故和全球公众对核电的看法——一个挑战
DOI：
10.1080/17524032.2018.1462225
复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bauer M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bauer M
我们研究了福岛事故（2011年3月）对全球公众对核电的看法的影响。我们在概念上和经验上对比了两种模型，一种是事件与效应（EE）模型[Kim，Y.，金，M.，& Kim，W.（2013年）。福岛核灾难对全球公众接受核能的影响。能源政策，61，822-828]和我们自己的挑战与响应（CR）模型。我们复制了Kim et al.（2013），他使用23个以上国家1996-2016年的历史意见数据，对一组“客观”预测因素进行了回顾性意见变化建模。EE模型对能源结构中核能依赖以外的观点转变几乎没有解释力。我们认为，个人和社会对核事故的反应受到文化记忆的制约，并介绍了替代CR模型。记忆，无论是个人的还是集体的，主要是适应性的，并使可用的示意性信息，以处理不确定的和新的情况。CR模型较好地解释了“过去对核事故的反应”、“核复兴”和“长期接受水平”等记忆因素对福岛反应的影响。我们能够根据23个国家的文化记忆的特征模式和他们的福岛反应来代表它们。
We examine the impact of the Fukushima accident (March 2011) on global public perceptions of nuclear power. We contrast conceptually and empirically two models, an event & effect (EE) model [Kim, Y., Kim, M., & Kim, W. (2013). Effect of Fukushima nuclear disaster on global public acceptance of nuclear energy.Energy Policy,61, 822–828] and our own challenge & response (CR) model. We replicate Kim et al. (2013), who modelled retrospective opinion changes on a set of “objective” predictors, using historical opinion data 1996–2016 for 23+ countries. The EE model shows little explanatory power for opinion shifts beyond nuclear dependency in the energy mix. We argue that individual and societal responses to nuclear accidents are constrained by cultural memories, and introduce the alternative CR model. Memory, both individual and collective, is primarily adaptive and makes available schematic information to deal with uncertain and novel situations. The CR model explains better the responses to Fukushima with memory factors of “Past Responses to Nuclear Incidents”, of “Nuclear Renaissance” and “Long-term levels of Acceptance”. We are able to typify 23 countries according to their characteristic pattern of cultural memory and their Fukushima responses.