The impact of climate change on the European road network
The impact of climate change on the European road network
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DOI：
10.1680/tran.11.00072
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发表时间：
2014-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. F. Bizjak;A. Dawson;I. Hoff;L. Makkonen;J. Ylhäisi;A. Carrera
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. F. Bizjak;A. Dawson;I. Hoff;L. Makkonen;J. Ylhäisi;A. Carrera
使用两种不同的二氧化碳排放情景和两种计算方法估算了欧洲未来100年的预期气候变化。据预测，欧洲区域内气候变化的主要表现是温度升高、大多数地区降雨强度增加和冻融循环减少。然后估计这种可能的气候变化对路面和与路面有关的基础设施的影响。应该指出的是，路面的生命周期远短于气候变化可能对路面性能产生统计上显著影响的时间跨度。为了模拟未来气候变化的影响，考虑到这些变化对路面结构的影响将取决于当地条件，进行了一些分析和数值分析。特别是，温度和降雨量的增加对沥青来说将是一个挑战，因为车辙和沥青…
Anticipated climate changes in Europe over the next 100 years were estimated using two different scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions and two computational approaches. The principal manifestations of climate change within the European region are predicted to be a rise in temperature, an increase in rainfall intensity in most areas and a decrease in freeze–thaw cycling. The impacts of such possible climate changes were then estimated for pavements and the pavement-related infrastructure. It should be noted that the life cycle of pavements is much shorter than the time span over which climate change might have a statistically significant influence on pavement performance. Several analytical and numerical analyses were performed in order to simulate the effect of future climate change, taking into account the fact that the effect of these changes on pavements structures will depend on local conditions. In particular, temperature and rainfall increase will be a challenge for asphalts, as both rutting and str...