Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events
Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events
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DOI：
10.1038/s41559-016-0058
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
16.8
通讯作者：
Smith, Alistair M. S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bowman, David M. J. S.;Williamson, Grant J.;Smith, Alistair M. S.
极端的野火会对经济、社会和环境产生重大影响，但不确定这些事件是地球火灾生态的不可避免的特征，还是管理和规划不善的遗留问题。在2002年至2013年期间，我们确定了478起极端野火事件，这些事件被定义为MODIS在全球10 x 10 km晶格内的每日火灾辐射功率集群，超过了MODIS记录中超过2300万例EFRP100 km（-2）的99.997百分位数。这些事件分布在全球所有可燃生物群落中，并与极端火灾天气条件密切相关。据报道，造成经济或社会灾难的极端野火事件（n = 144）集中在美国西部和澳大利亚东南部易燃森林生物群落的郊区，这表明在报告中可能存在偏见，并且缺乏全球全面的火灾数据。气候变化预测表明，在这些易受灾害影响的地区，极端野火事件发生的天数将增加20%至50%，南半球亚热带地区和欧洲地中海盆地的增加幅度更大。
Extreme wildfires have substantial economic, social and environmental impacts, but there is uncertainty whether such events are inevitable features of the Earth's fire ecology or a legacy of poor management and planning. We identify 478 extreme wildfire events defined as the daily clusters of fire radiative power from MODIS, within a global 10 x 10 km lattice, between 2002 and 2013, which exceeded the 99.997th percentile of over 23 million cases of the EFRP100 km(-2) in the MODIS record. These events are globally distributed across all flammable biomes, and are strongly associated with extreme fire weather conditions. Extreme wildfire events reported as being economically or socially disastrous (n = 144) were concentrated in suburban areas in flammable-forested biomes of the western United States and southeastern Australia, noting potential biases in reporting and the absence of globally comprehensive data of fire disasters. Climate change projections suggest an increase in days conducive to extreme wildfire events by 20 to 50% in these disaster-prone landscapes, with sharper increases in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere and European Mediterranean Basin.