Current global food production is sufficient to meet human nutritional needs in 2050 provided there is radical societal adaptation
Current global food production is sufficient to meet human nutritional needs in 2050 provided there is radical societal adaptation
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DOI：
10.1525/elementa.310
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发表时间：
2018-07-18
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Hewitt, C. N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Berners-Lee, M.;Kennelly, C.;Hewitt, C. N.
我们对全球和区域粮食供应进行了定量分析，以揭示热量、蛋白质和微量营养素维生素a、铁和锌从生产到人类消费和其他终点的流动。我们量化了减少喂给动物的人类食用作物的数量，以及更不重要的是减少浪费，可以在多大程度上增加食物供应。目前的作物产量足以为2050年预计的97亿全球人口提供足够的食物，尽管许多人的社会经济条件发生了非常重大的变化（确保获得全球粮食供应），大多数人的饮食选择发生了根本性的变化（用植物性替代品取代大多数肉类和乳制品，以及更多人接受目前喂养动物的人类可食用作物，特别是玉米）。作为直接食用的人类食物)是必需的。在所有情况下，生物燃料生产的范围是有限的。我们的分析发现，用人类可食用的作物喂养动物没有任何营养意义，因为这会减少热量和蛋白质的供应。如果社会继续按照“一切照旧”的饮食轨迹发展，到2050年，食用作物的种植将需要增加119%。
We present a quantitative analysis of global and regional food supply to reveal the flows of calories, protein and the micro-nutrients vitamin A, iron and zinc, from production through to human consumption and other end points. We quantify the extent to which reductions in the amount of human-edible crops fed to animals and, less importantly, reductions in waste, could increase food supply. The current production of crops is sufficient to provide enough food for the projected global population of 9.7 billion in 2050, although very significant changes to the socio-economic conditions of many (ensuring access to the global food supply) and radical changes to the dietary choices of most (replacing most meat and dairy with plant-based alternatives, and greater acceptance of human-edible crops currently fed to animals, especially maize, as directly-consumed human food) would be required. Under all scenarios, the scope for biofuel production is limited. Our analysis finds no nutritional case for feeding human-edible crops to animals, which reduces calorie and protein supplies. If society continues on a 'business-as-usual' dietary trajectory, a 119% increase in edible crops grown will be required by 2050.