The mixed blessings of self-knowledge in behavioral prediction: Enhanced discrimination but exacerbated bias
The mixed blessings of self-knowledge in behavioral prediction: Enhanced discrimination but exacerbated bias
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/0146167205284007
复制
发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Dunning, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Epley, N;Dunning, D
四个实验表明，自我认知在行为预测中提供了好坏参半的祝福，这取决于如何衡量准确性。与对他人的预测相比，自我认知倾向于通过增加偏差（预测行为与现实之间的平均差异）来降低整体准确性，但也倾向于通过增强辨别力（预测行为与现实之间的相关性）来提高整体准确性。总体而言，参与者的自我预测高估了他们将从事理想行为的可能性（偏见），而同伴预测相对公正。然而，自我预测也比同伴预测与实际行为（辨别力）的个体差异更密切相关。讨论解决的成本和利益的自我知识的行为预测和更广泛的影响，衡量判断准确性的判断方面的偏见与歧视。
Four experiments demonstrate that self-knowledge provides a mixed blessing in behavioral prediction, depending on how accuracy is measured. Compared with predictions of others, self-knowledge tends to decrease overall accuracy by increasing bias (the mean difference between predicted behavior and reality) but tends to increase overall accuracy by also enhancing discrimination (the correlation between predicted behavior and reality). Overall, participants' self-predictions overestimated the likelihood that they would engage in desirable behaviors (bias), whereas peer predictions were relatively unbiased. However, self- predictions also were more strongly correlated with individual differences in actual behavior (discrimination) than were Peer predictions. Discussion addresses the costs and benefits of self-knowledge in behavioral prediction and the broader implications of measuring judgmental accuracy of judgment in terms of bias versus discrimination.