The influence of conceptual model structure on model performance: a comparative study for 237 French catchments
The influence of conceptual model structure on model performance: a comparative study for 237 French catchments
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-17-4227-2013
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发表时间：
2013-10
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
W. Esse;C. Perrin;M. Booij;D. Augustijn;F. Fenicia;D. Kavetski;F. Lobligeois
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Esse;C. Perrin;M. Booij;D. Augustijn;F. Fenicia;D. Kavetski;F. Lobligeois
具有固定结构的模型广泛应用于水文研究和业务应用。由于各种原因，这些模型并不总是表现良好。作为替代方案，灵活的建模方法允许在建模过程中识别和细化模型结构。在本研究中，使用大量 237 个法国流域和基于流量的性能指标，将 SUPERFLEX 框架中的 12 种不同概念模型结构与固定模型结构 GR4H 进行了比较。结果表明，一般来说，灵活方法比固定方法表现更好。然而，在两个不同时期进行校准时，灵活的方法更有可能出现不一致的结果。在分析 116 个流域的子集（其中两种方法在多个时间段内产生一致的性能）时，它们相对于彼此的平均性能几乎相当。从开发性能良好的固定模型结构的角度来看，研究结果支持具有并行水库和描述水库流出量的幂函数的模型。一般来说，概念水文模型在较大和/或较湿润的流域上比在较小和/或较干燥的流域上表现更好。当校准期和验证期之间存在较大气候差异时、在流量剧烈的流域以及在低流量测量值中存在无法解释的变化的流域中，模型结构表现不佳。
Models with a fixed structure are widely used in hydrological studies and operational applications. For various reasons, these models do not always perform well. As an alternative, flexible modelling approaches allow the identification and refinement of the model structure as part of the modelling process. In this study, twelve different conceptual model structures from the SUPERFLEX framework are compared with the fixed model structure GR4H, using a large set of 237 French catchments and discharge-based performance metrics. The results show that, in general, the flexible approach performs better than the fixed approach. However, the flexible approach has a higher chance of inconsistent results when calibrated on two different periods. When analysing the subset of 116 catchments where the two approaches produce consistent performance over multiple time periods, their average performance relative to each other is almost equivalent. From the point of view of developing a well-performing fixed model structure, the findings favour models with parallel reservoirs and a power function to describe the reservoir outflow. In general, conceptual hydrological models perform better on larger and/or wetter catchments than on smaller and/or drier catchments. The model structures performed poorly when there were large climatic differences between the calibration and validation periods, in catchments with flashy flows, and in catchments with unexplained variations in low flow measurements.