Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards
Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.004
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Feyen, Luc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Formetta, Giuseppe;Feyen, Luc
在世界许多地区，自然灾害造成的死亡人数和经济损失继续上升。为了减少自然灾害的未来影响，必须了解人和经济资产的脆弱性在空间和时间上的可变性。在本文中，我们量化了1980年至2016年期间社会经济脆弱性的时间动态，表示为暴露人口的死亡人数和暴露GDP的损失。使用一个全球性的、空间上明确的框架，将人口和经济动态与最完整的自然灾害损失数据库之一相结合，我们量化了不同收入水平的死亡率和损失率，并分析了它们与财富的关系。结果显示，人类和经济脆弱性都呈明显下降趋势，从1980-1989年到2007-2016年，全球平均死亡率和经济损失率分别下降了6.5倍和近5倍。我们进一步表明，脆弱性与财富之间存在明显的负相关关系，这种关系在最低收入水平上最为强烈。这导致高收入国家和低收入国家的脆弱性趋于一致。然而，穷国和富国之间在气候灾害脆弱性方面仍然存在相当大的差距。
Death tolls and economic losses from natural hazards continue to rise in many parts of the world. With the aim to reduce future impacts from natural disasters it is crucial to understand the variability in space and time of the vulnerability of people and economic assets. In this paper we quantified the temporal dynamics of socio-economic vulnerability, expressed as fatalities over exposed population and losses over exposed GDP, to climate-related hazards between 1980 and 2016. Using a global, spatially explicit framework that integrates population and economic dynamics with one of the most complete natural disaster loss databases we quantified mortality and loss rates across income levels and analyzed their relationship with wealth. Results show a clear decreasing trend in both human and economic vulnerability, with global average mortality and economic loss rates that have dropped by 6.5 and nearly 5 times, respectively, from 1980-1989 to 2007-2016. We further show a clear negative relation between vulnerability and wealth, which is strongest at the lowest income levels. This has led to a convergence in vulnerability between higher and lower income countries. Yet, there is still a considerable climate hazard vulnerability gap between poorer and richer countries.