Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective
Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective
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DOI：
10.1093/oxrep/graa033
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Farmer, J. Doyne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria;Mealy, Penny;Farmer, J. Doyne
我们在个别职业和行业的层面上，对与COVID-19大流行相关的美国经济的一级供需冲击进行定量预测。为了分析供给冲击，我们将行业划分为必要或非必要行业，并构建了一个远程劳动力指数，该指数衡量了不同职业在家工作的能力。需求冲击是根据美国国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）对严重流感疫情可能产生的影响进行的一项研究得出的。与新冠疫情前相比，这些冲击将威胁到美国经济GDP的20%左右，危及23%的就业岗位，并使工资总收入减少16%。在行业层面，运输等部门可能受到需求冲击的产出限制，而与制造业、采矿业和服务业相关的部门更有可能受到供应冲击的限制。娱乐、餐饮和旅游业面临巨大的供需冲击。在职业水平上，我们发现高工资职业相对不受不利的供给侧和需求侧冲击的影响，而低工资职业则更加脆弱。我们应该强调，我们的结果只是一阶冲击——我们预计它们会被生产网络中的反馈效应大大放大。
We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy's GDP, jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to be output-constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining, and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants, and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply- and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks-we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.