Assessment on water resources carrying capacity in karst areas by using an innovative DPESBRM concept model and cloud model
Assessment on water resources carrying capacity in karst areas by using an innovative DPESBRM concept model and cloud model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144353
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发表时间：
2021-01-09
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Jin, Zhiyuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng, Tao;Deng, Hongwei;Jin, Zhiyuan
喀斯特地区水资源短缺的主要原因是喀斯特地貌发育、水资源可获得性差、利用难度大。为合理评价喀斯特地区水资源承载能力，根据喀斯特地区城市水资源利用特点，首次提出了驱动-压力-工程缺水-状态-生态基础-响应-管理(DPESBRM)概念模型，构建了喀斯特地区水资源承载能力城市评价指标体系。在该指标体系的基础上，针对评价过程中存在的不确定性，采用云模型表示指标权重并进行综合评价计算，充分考虑了评价对象的随机性和模糊性。对2009年至2018年的水利枢纽进行了评价，并将其划分为五个等级(严重超载-超载-临界-承载能力弱-承载能力强)。结果表明，水利枢纽的承载能力逐年提高，从2009年的严重超载状态逐渐转变为2018.2009和2016年的较强通过能力状态，被列为I级(严重超载)。2010年和2011年被列为II级(超载)。2012年、2013年和2015年被归类为IV级(承载能力较弱)。2014年、2017年和2018年被归类为V级(承载能力强)。将云模型评估结果与TOPSIS法评估结果进行了比较，评估结果基本一致。结果表明，本研究建立的基于云模型的水资源综合利用评价方法是合理可行的。人口密度、城镇化率和人均用水量是影响水资源综合利用的重要驱动因素。因此，加强水利设施建设，优化用水结构，提高工业用水效率，降低人均用水量，缩小城市用水供需缺口，是确保水利水电联通的重要措施。(C)2020爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
The shortage of water resources in karst areas is mainly caused by the development of karst landforms, poor availability of water resources and the difficulty of utilization. To reasonably evaluate water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) of karst areas, based on characteristics of urban water resources utilization in karst areas, this study put forward DPESBRM (Driver-Pressure-Engineering water shortage-State-Ecological basis-Response-Management) concept model the first time to build an urban evaluation index system of WRCC in karst areas. Based on this index system and in allusion to uncertainties that exist during the evaluation process, a cloud model is used to represent index weights and perform comprehensive evaluation calculations, which fully considers the randomness and ambiguity of evaluation objects. WRCC from 2009 to 2018 were evaluated and were classified as five grades (Serious overload - Overload - Critical - Weak carrying capacity - Strong carrying capacity). Results proved that WRCC had improved year after year, gradually changing from a serious overload state in 2009 to a strong carrying capadty state in 2018.2009 and 2016 were classified as I grade (serious overload). 2010 and 2011 were classified as II grade (overload). 2012, 2013 and 2015 were classified as IV grade (weak bearing capacity). 2014, 2017 and 2018 were classified as V grade (strong bearing capacity). Cloud model assessment results are compared with that of TOPSIS method, and assessment results are basically unanimous. It shows that the established WRCC evaluation method based on cloud model in this study is reasonable and feasible. Population density, urbanization rate and per capital water consumption are important driving factors affecting WRCC. Hence, strengthening the construction of water conservancy facilities, optimizing the water consumption structure, improving the efficiency of industrial water use, reducing per capital water consumption, and narrowing urban water supply and demand gap are important measures to ensure WRCC. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.