Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases:: the case of dengue in Brazil
Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases:: the case of dengue in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01560.x
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Tsouris, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Favier, C;Degallier, N;Tsouris, P
为了评价一种从媒介传播疾病在媒介和宿主中孵化的早期流行曲线得出媒介传播疾病繁殖数的新方法。我们将该模型应用于巴西不同气候地区的几次登革热疫情：巴西利亚、贝伦、福塔莱萨和博阿维斯塔。新方法导致对繁殖数的估计比以前的模型更高。目前，埃及伊蚊的密度满足更多相容的病毒和蚊子毒株，可能导致城市黄热病疫情的重新出现。
To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts.We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belem, Fortaleza, Boa Vista.The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models.At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.