Socioeconomic development and wood consumption
Socioeconomic development and wood consumption
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DOI：
10.1007/s10310-015-0481-6
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Takagi, Shigesada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kayo, Chihiro;Oka, Hiroyasu;Takagi, Shigesada
为了揭示经济社会发展与木材消费之间的关系，以便调查经济社会发展预期国家未来的木材需求变化，我们分析了33个OECD国家和6个BRIICS国家的人均GDP、人类发展指数（HDI）等与人均木材消费相关的面板数据。人均国内生产总值与人均锯材消费量之间呈线性增长趋势。然而，当达到相同的经济水平时，消费量随着时间的推移而下降。在胶合板、重组板和纸/纸板的情况下，结果表明，在人均GDP和人均消费之间存在一条以倒U型曲线表示的环境库兹涅茨曲线，证实了消费达到饱和然后随着经济发展而下降的趋势。就木材燃料而言，经济水平与人均消费量之间的线性增长趋势得到证实，这表明发达国家最近在推广生物燃料。然而，经济水平本身可能不足以解释对木材的需求。在一定的人类发展指数水平下，锯木、胶合板、重组板和纸/纸板的消费量随着时间的推移而下降。人口密度的增加和城市化可促使人均木材消费量减少，而国家森林面积越大，人均木材消费量就越大。特别是，在可持续森林管理下使用最新形式的木材燃料的趋势日益明显。
To show the relationship between socioeconomic development and wood consumption for the investigation of future changes in wood demand in countries where socioeconomic development is expected, we analyzed panel data on per capita GDP, the human development index (HDI), and other factors in relation to per capita wood consumption for 33 OECD and 6 BRIICS countries. An increasing linear trend was found between per capita GDP and per capita consumption for sawn wood. However, the consumption declined over time when the same economic level was attained. In the case of plywood, reconstituted panels, and paper/paperboard, the results suggest that an environmental Kuznets curve, represented as an inverted-U curve, exists between per capita GDP and per capita consumption, confirming a tendency for consumption to reach saturation and then decline as economic development progresses. For wood fuel, an increasing linear trend was confirmed between economic level and per capita consumption, indicating the recent promotion of biofuel in developed countries. However, economic level alone might not be sufficient for explaining the demand for wood. The consumption of sawn wood, plywood, reconstituted panels, and paper/paperboard declined over time for a given HDI level. Rising population density and urbanization can contribute to a decrease in per capita wood consumption, whereas the larger the country's forest area, the greater per capita wood consumption. In particular, there is an increasing tendency to use the latest forms of wood fuel under sustainable forest management.