A universal model for mobility and migration patterns
A universal model for mobility and migration patterns
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nature10856
复制
发表时间：
2012-04-05
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Simini, Filippo;Gonzalez, Marta C.;Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo
1946年引入了现代形式的引力定律（参考文献1），但其根源可以追溯到18世纪（2），引力定律（1、3、4）是预测人口流动（3、5、6）、货物运输量（7）和城市间电话（8、9）以及国家间双边贸易流量（10）的主要框架。尽管它被广泛使用，但它依赖于可调整的参数，这些参数因地区而异，并且存在已知的分析不一致性。在这里，我们引入了一个随机过程捕获本地的流动性决策，帮助我们分析得出通勤和流动性通量，只需要输入的人口分布信息。由此产生的辐射模型预测的流动性模式与流动性和运输模式中观察到的广泛的现象，从长期的迁移模式，不同地区之间的通信量。鉴于其无参数性质，该模型可以应用于我们缺乏以前的流动性测量的领域，显着提高受流动性和运输过程影响的大多数现象的预测准确性（11-23）。
Introduced in its contemporary form in 1946 (ref. 1), but with roots that go back to the eighteenth century(2), the gravity law(1,3,4) is the prevailing framework with which to predict population movement(3,5,6), cargo shipping volume(7) and inter-city phone calls(8,9), as well as bilateral trade flows between nations(10). Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of the phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes(11-23).