Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record
Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl083291
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发表时间：
2019-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Randolph T. Williams;Joshua R. Davis;L. Goodwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Randolph T. Williams;Joshua R. Davis;L. Goodwin
我们分析了31个已发表的地震年表，以评估在一系列断层类型和构造背景下准周期性地震重复的共性。我们使用的统计方法与以前的方法不同，因为它明确地在地震年表中纳入了数字不确定性，同时认识到随机事件序列(年表测试所依据的事件序列)在大多数已发表记录的典型短时间尺度上似乎不那么无序。我们的结果表明，58%的年表支持准周期重现的解释(随机重现的概率&10%)。这些断层包括板边界和板内环境中的走滑断层、正断层和反向断层，这些断层显示出具有类似频率的准周期复发的证据。我们得出结论：准周期性破裂可能是发震地壳中断层的常态，应力更新是广泛构造背景下断层破裂的一级控制。
We analyzed a catalog of 31 published earthquake chronologies to assess the commonality of quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence across a range of fault types and tectonic settings. The statistical approach we employ differs from previous methods in that it explicitly incorporates numeric uncertainties in the earthquake chronologies while recognizing that random sequences of events (against which the chronologies are tested) may appear to be less disordered over the short time scales typical of most published records. Our results show that 58% of the chronologies support an interpretation of quasiperiodic recurrence (probability of random recurrence < 10%). These include strike‐slip, normal, and reverse faults in both plate‐boundary and intraplate environments, which exhibit evidence for quasiperiodic recurrence with comparable frequency. We conclude that quasiperiodic failure is likely the norm for faults in the seismogenic crust and that stress renewal is a first‐order control on fault rupture across a wide range of tectonic settings.