Spatial and temporal epidemiology of sporadic human cases of Escherichia coli O157 in Scotland, 1996-1999
Spatial and temporal epidemiology of sporadic human cases of Escherichia coli O157 in Scotland, 1996-1999
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268805003687
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Reid, SWJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Innocent, GT;Mellor, DJ;Reid, SWJ
在苏格兰，1995年至2000年期间，每年每10万人中有4至10例被确定为由大肠杆菌0157引起的疾病，而在英格兰和威尔士，每年每10万人中有1至2例。在苏格兰，区域差异很大。在苏格兰东北部确定了一组高利率地区，在苏格兰中西部确定了一组低利率地区。时间趋势遵循季节性模式，而空间效应似乎是遥远的，而不是本地的。最佳拟合模型确定了一个显着的空间趋势，从西到东，从南到北的病例率增加。在所拟合的模型中，牛的种群密度、人口密度和人均牛的数量均达到显著水平。研究结果表明，农村/城市的暴露是重要的散发性感染。
In Scotland, between 1995 and 2000 there were between 4 and 10 cases of illness per 100000 population per year identified as being caused by Escherichia coli 0 157, whereas in England and Wales there were between 1 and 2 cases per 100 000 population per year. Within Scotland there is significant regional variation. A cluster of high rate areas was identified in the Northeast of Scotland and a cluster of low rate areas in central-west Scotland. Temporal trends follow a seasonal pattern whilst spatial effects appeared to be distant rather than local. The best-fit model identified a significant spatial trend with case rate increasing from West to East, and from South to North. No statistically significant spatial interaction term was found. In the models fitted, the cattle population density, the human population density, and the number of cattle per person were variously significant. The findings suggest that rural/urban exposures are important in sporadic infections.